Bird Flu Pandemic Predicted by Former CDC Director

Image credit: Mangocove, CC BY-SA 4.0

Former CDC Director Robert Redfield predicts that a bird flu pandemic is inevitable; it's only a matter of time. Accoring to The Hill, Redfield expressed concern over the virus, which has been detected in cattle and resulted in a human death in Mexico. He emphasized the high mortality rate of bird flu in humans, which he estimates to be between 25% and 50%, compared to COVID-19’s 0.6% mortality rate.

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The CDC identified a third human case of bird flu in May, among farmworkers, with symptoms including cough and pink eye but no fever. There's no evidence yet of human-to-human transmission. Redfield, who has researched the virus, explained that for bird flu to spread between humans, five specific amino acids in the virus must mutate to bind to human receptors.

Redfield stated that once these mutations occur, a bird flu pandemic will follow, though the timing is uncertain. The virus's presence in over 40 cattle herds nationwide heightens concerns, especially given the proximity of cattle to pigs, which can facilitate the virus's evolution to infect humans. While the general public's current risk remains low according to the CDC, some experts believe it may be advisable to stock up on essential supplies just in case.

Redfield also highlighted the risk of the virus being lab-grown, noting that the necessary mutations were published in 2012 despite his objections. This makes the information on how to make bird flu highly infectious to humans readily available, adding another layer of concern to the potential for a future pandemic.